I am net short here and the reason for that is in this market overview. Best of luck to you all.
As we come to end of the year gold and silver are in a very interesting technical range. Below is the video on why I am for the first time in 6 months holding a large position in the Jr Miners overnight. Have a great evening everyone I will be doing a market recap video later this week.
Rather than try and pick individual winners from the bloodbath has been the oil sector we decided to play ERX at the open today. Below is why we played ERX and what were are looking for in the next few days. Good luck to you all!
I hope you all had a wonderful thanksgiving! I have filled most of the spots for my trade coaching services, I only have 4 spots left. If you are interested please reach out to me on the right. Below is a market overview for the next 2 weeks. I think we will see a number of good setups and plays here into years end. I wish you all the best!
When I started Charts Don’t Lie I had three reasons for doing so.
1. To have a record of all of my trades so I could analyze everything I did to get better.
2. Provide a record of my journey not just for myself but also for my readers.
3. Eventually take my in-depth knowledge and help others become better.
I spent a long time thinking about how best to do #3 in a way that provides real value to my readers. I contemplated putting together weekly newsletter or daily actionable trade alerts service. However there are many of those out there and as you know by now, I like to take a different path than most.
My mother was a teacher so was my grandmother, my mother in law is a teacher and so was my grandmother in law. Teaching runs in my family. A never ending quest for knowledge and to help others runs through me. When I would have home run days where my portfolio would be up 25%+ it felt great, but upon reflection, what really felt better was messages from you all. Nothing made me feel better than when one of my followers would tell me about how my insights helped them make a great trade, help them cut a loss or helped them learn something that they will carry with them for as long as they trade.
When I was playing poker professionally, it became a lonely endeavor. Regardless of how much I made in a day something was missing and it took me years to figure out what that was, but once I did it spawned an amazing experience. What was missing was simple, it was helping others. A few years ago, I put together a group of around 10 poker players and once a week we would get together and discuss different hands and dive deep into game theory. I spent at least 4 hours a week teaching others from my hands and from analyzing theirs. Those were the best 4 hours of my week. I turned a few lifetime losers into some great poker players, many of whom I still keep in touch with to this day. I still get calls telling me about how they just won a tournament or had a huge win in Vegas, and it always puts a huge smile on my face.
The reason I have over 1000 followers on stocktwits and a large group of regular readers on this site is because of my never ending quest for knowledge and helping others. I have answered every question asked to me on stocktwits for over a year because I love to help others. Nothing makes me happier than helping someone see a new way of looking at something and bettering their trading.
Rather than put together a run of the mill list of stocks that might make a move or a weekly newsletter, I am putting together something very few people offer and something that provides immense lifelong value, mentorship through trade coaching.
This service isn’t just about finding opportunities for profit in the market, it is about making you the best trader you can be. The toughest thing to do in trading isn’t finding the right setups, it’s mastering your emotions and staying disciplined. Trading is an extremely difficult battle especially if you fight it alone, which is why most traders eventually fail.
Why did Tiger Woods have a swing coach when he was the best golfer in the world? Because he was unable to see the mistakes he was making himself and needed an outside perspective. Traders are no different. We all bring a bias into our trades. Take the recent move in the coal stocks, many which ran up over 100% in a month. I was surprised to see some very smart traders buying after this huge run up, while I was telling my followers to sell when we were up 100%+ in a few days and now way outside Bollinger band and sentiment was screaming coal miners to go higher and higher! The writing was clear that they were going to pull back sharply in the next few trading sessions. Even if they didn’t the risk/reward was not in longs favor. People were afraid of the train leaving without them and they were breaking their rules following the masses off a cliff. Sure enough, the coal stocks pulled back 20-30%+ over the next few trading sessions.
Removing emotion is difficult and it’s why working with someone leads to increased profits. Ask yourself how many times have you had a winning position only to give back some or all of the profits? Why did that happen? More often than not, you ignored some of your own rules or let greed get the best of you. Most people, instead of removing emotion from the equation and trading what they are seeing, have huge slippage in profits because of their emotions.
When you are able to remove emotion from trading, it becomes a completely different and more profitable experience. But we are emotional creatures by nature and even the best of us succumb to ourselves during our trading. That is why many of the best traders have a mentor or trade coach to help them rethink their positions and make rational decisions over emotional ones. Unfortunately most people do not have a trade coach or a mentor and are left to figure everything out themselves. They get stuck reading message boards online where there are both bulls and bears yelling targets at one another and still letting their bias focus on only what reaffirms their position.
Think about how much money you have given back to the markets over the last year and your trading career not because the markets beat you but rather you beat yourself because of emotion? I want to help my students avoid the pitfalls that bias and emotions cause through focusing on 5 key ways to help transform them to become better more rational traders.
1. Find their edge, the system that works for them, develop that strategy and get it on paper.
2. Learn to focus on risk first then rewards not the other way around.
3. How to find the setups that work best for them.
4. Uncover and confront their weaknesses and develop ways to overcome them.
5. Remove emotion from trading and become a rational and calculated trader.
I will be working with no more than 10 traders at a time. I want to make sure that every single person I work with has all of the one on one time they need to become a better trader. Every trader will get completely customized help on the schedule that works best for them.
We will start with an in-depth consultation where we go over your trading goals and risk tolerance then dive into your latest trades and analysis why you entered and exited the trade. Focusing on uncovering where you have the most slippage. We will then build out a personalized trading plan and get it on paper so you know exactly what you need to do to be successful. You will then get access to me all trading day over the phone and with skype to screen share. You will get a second set of eyes on each of your trades to help make sure you are making the best decisions. I will also highlight some different trade opportunities that fit your risk profile.
Most trade coaches offer a few phone calls a month, maybe 3 hours of interaction, and work with a large number of clients. I want to make sure everyone I work with gets all of the one on one time they need and will not work with more than 10 people at a time. I want to build a lifelong relationship with my traders and help them achieve their trading goals. I am giving a 50% discount to the first 5 traders to sign up and already have 2 spots filled. You can sign up on the Trade Coaching page. Or reach out to me at email@example.com with any questions on the service. Once I reach 10 people I will start a waiting list. I wish you all the best of luck and look forward to working with a few traders who want to better their trading careers and lives.
I will be doing videos on setups and plays moving forward. I will still be doing write ups but sometimes a video does a better job of explaining everything. Here is the first video of many to come. Have a great weekend everyone.
I took a $252 loss Wednesday and yesterday I took no trades (nothing setup right) Today my eyes were on Oil and Gold. I saw JNUG move up on the open with huge volume it was clearly in play. I didnt jump right in I waited for the right entry rather than chasing the opening pop (how many times has that failed in the past?) The low on open was 3.24 15 minutes later JNUG had gone up to 3.51 and comeback to test the LOD 3.25 held. I got my great entry setup by waiting for it. Since it was so close to the bottom I placed a market buy for 30k shares at 3.27 put my stop at LOD 3.24 taking a 3 cent risk a $900 risk for what I thought was likely to be a large upside and held on for the ride of my life. Gold and JNUG took off and I sold in 10k blocks in three pieces over $4 with the last sale at 4.32 as gold broke this intraday support
The total gains on the JNUG trade were 25k the best $ gain in a day I have ever had.
If you have been following me for a while I am sure you are wondering where I came up with 100k. I wish I had 100k sitting in the bank to use but the truth is I had to ask for help to raise enough capital to give myself a shot at making some real money. I have been struggling over the last few months because I was short of the 25k requirement to day trade. Having to hold trades like SPEX overnight were crushing (-35% gap down) and made it almost impossible to make any headway. By the time I had finally figured out I was best at day trading I was in a position where I wasn't able to do so. It was beyond frustrating to work so hard to learn everything I could and be in a position with less than 25k and unable to trade the way I needed to in order to make money. I was either going to have to change how I invested or work and save every penny I could to put 25k together. Luckily I have been blessed with an amazing group of supporting people who have believed in me since day one and stepped up and helped me put together 100k. The downside is I have to split profits and have the weight of others $ on my shoulders at all times. While it is amazing to have the support I really do not like having to split profits but more importantly risk others capital. If I had made a big miss step I know I would have hurt a few people I care about financially. It was something that was weighing on me. Ironically it was this added weight that made me focus on risk first and changed my perception and ultimately made me a better trader. But I still didn't want that weighing on my mind moving forward.
When we got started the goal was to get to 140k pay out some profits and take the rest open my own account with 25k in it. We thought it would take 4-5 months+ to get to that point, but I got presented a huge opportunity today and even though it worked out it was still a bigger risk than I should have taken. Just shy of the 140k goal at 137K I decided to cash out the account pay my backers off and open a solely my own account. I will be moving 25k into a new account once these funds clear. I will hopefully be up and running by end of next week or start of the next.
This experience over the last few weeks helped me realize a few things that I will forever carry with me. Risk management is key. Risk management is key. Risk management is key.
I am by my nature a huge risk taker but its all calculated risk. While the profits of today were thrilling, I had almost all of my $ in one trade. Its hard to make me feel uncomfortable but the first 2 hours of the day was a gut wrenching ride. I am right more than I am wrong, that is my edge. Over time taking same sized risk trades I will end up ahead. I made 10k in 7 days without taking a loss bigger than $250 taking what the market gave me and grinding it out. I can continue to do that for as long as I have capital to work with, which is why making sure that is the case is priority #1,2 &3.
I am not right 100% of the time and I am fine admitting when I am wrong and taking a loss. Small losses don't bother me big ones not only hurt the account but cloud my judgement for future trades. So avoiding big losses is the most important thing for me. I want to be in this game for the rest of my life so I can't ever let one trade make or break me. Todays JNUG trade worked out well for me, but it just as easily could have dropped to 3.23 shaken me out before the move and cost me $900. $900 isn't a big loss but its a bigger loss than I want to take. I put too much in play today on a low probability play. It would have been much better to take a smaller position with a wider stop. No I wouldn't have made 25k but I would have 1500-2000$ with a $300 risk 10 of those trades add up to 25k thats the game I am playing for now. Today I got away with one I needed it, but I can't put myself in that position again. I can't ever let myself get to a point I need to rely on anyone else for capital.
I am now back where I was a year ago with a 25k account. The difference this time is I have a world more of knowledge and that is a game changer. I came into this game thinking it would be easy. I would make 100k+ in a short period of time. That was so far from reality its funny to look back and see that's what I thought was going to happen. It has been one helluva ride insane highs and heart breaking lows. I am confident in where I will be a year from now. I look forward to what the future brings.
I want to thank you all for reading, your interactions with me. I know I have helped you all but you all have also helped me more than I can put into words. A lot of valuable lessons have come from your insights. I look forward to continuing this journey with you all. Have a great weekend everyone.